Phnom Penh:International rice prices rose by 1.6 percent in October compared to the previous month, even as overall food prices experienced a decline, as reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
According to Agence Kampuchea Presse, the FAO attributed the increase in rice prices to harvest delays in some rice-exporting countries, which were compounded by adverse weather conditions and rising costs. The organization's overall Food Price Index, which monitors monthly changes in prices of a basket of globally traded foods, decreased by 1.2 percent from its revised level in September.
The FAO highlighted that lower price indices across most commodity groups offset the sharp rise in sugar prices and a marginal increase in vegetable oils. Despite the recent decline, the Food Price Index remains 5.9 percent above its level from October last year, though it is 16.4 percent below its peak observed in March 2022.
The FAO also released its monthly Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, indicating that global rice output is projected to contract for the first time in four seasons by 2026. This anticipated 2.5 percent decline from the previous year is largely due to poor producer margins and weather conditions associated with El Niño. Despite this, rice utilization for the 2026-27 season is expected to surpass output, increasing by 0.6 percent to 558.8 million tonnes.
Global rice reserves are predicted to be lower by the end of the season, yet record carry-ins are expected to cushion the reduction, leaving stocks at 216.5 million tonnes, the second-highest level on record. The forecast for rice trade in 2027 suggests a 2.9 percent rise to 61.6 million tonnes, driven by stronger import demand and increased exports from India and Pakistan.
The World Bank, in its biannual Commodity Markets Outlook released last month, revised its rice price forecasts upward by 12 percent for the current year and 21 percent for the next year. These adjustments reflect the impact of the strong El Niño weather pattern on Asian harvests.